Google’s Cloud: How to cope with the disappearance of the PC
July 10th, 2009 | by jz | Published in Future of the Internet, Generativity | 7 Comments
I wrote up a few thoughts on Google’s announcement of its new Chrome operating system, designed to permit near-instant booting of a PC or other device to … a Web browser, and essentially only a Web browser. The piece can be found here, and below:
Google and Microsoft are now officially fighting over you. They are vying not merely for your momentary attention—that rare instant when your precious eyeballs stray to an ad, motivating you to click on it and cause a penny or a nickel to fall into their jars. They want a long-term relationship with you, and each thinks its future depends on it.
Google made its boldest bid in this direction this week with the announcement of its new operating system, Chrome. Soon you will be able to buy a PC or other device loaded with Chrome instead of Windows. By Google’s account, Chrome will serve a single essential purpose: to get your computer up and running with a Web browser —confusingly also called Chrome—seconds after you’ve turned it on. Now you’ll be greeted each day by Google instead of Microsoft. Just as all those years ago Microsoft Windows pointed you toward Microsoft’s other products, Google’s browser will likely naturally angle you toward Google’s ever-expanding family of Web products.
If the plan succeeds and lots of people snap up Chrome instead of Windows, it will cement the idea that software is now meant to run out there “in the cloud,” far away from the PC or PDA in front of you. You’ll need an Internet connection to do most things—and to be sure, that’s much easier to find in 2009 than it was in 1995. The question is, in the era of the cloud, how do we avoid sacrificing our essential computing freedoms?
The issue arises because Google aspires to be not only the index of your information, but also the repository. As Google Mail seamlessly interacts with Google Docs and Spreadsheets (the whole service is called Google Apps), you might find yourself spending most of your time not simply on the Web, but at Google.com or its partners. Google could be as dominating a presence in the cloud era as Microsoft has been in the PC era.
Google’s announcement is a milestone within a long transition from the PC to the Web. For about two decades, an overwhelming majority of computer users were greeted by Microsoft’s Windows startup screen and chime. Microsoft collected fees for the basic software that ran your PC, and then again by selling application software such as word processors and spreadsheets. Software developers would write new software for Windows since that’s where the users were, and users would keep buying Windows since that’s where the software was. As the Web took off in the late 1990s, the browser began to disturb this arrangement. Netscape got the idea of bundling software called Java with its browser, which made it powerful enough to take on word processing, spreadsheets, and many other things.
Google is now on the verge of finishing what Netscape started. So far, Google hasn’t fully figured out its business model. Instead of charging you the way Microsoft did for Windows and Office, perhaps Google will stick with ads, hoping you’ll occasionally click on something. Or perhaps, serving as the hub of your online identity, Google can help you spend your money on other sites, taking a cut the way your credit-card company does from a merchant when you make a purchase. Or perhaps Google will charge developers for the privilege of running their software on the Google Apps platform, or even to run it elsewhere but drawing upon Google resources—the way that a restaurant’s Web site might help you find the place by embedding an interactive Google map on one of its pages.
Although no one can predict Chrome’s future, the Web relentlessly pulls us, and our data in. Unless we come up with ways of protecting ourselves now, our data could be shaped and used in ways we haven’t imagined and that are beyond our control. We could find it hard to switch from one service provider to another after piling up so much information, and so many relationships, in one place. We ought to be able to move our data, with just a click, from one gated community to another—from, say, Microsoft’s Office Live, its suite of Web-based software, to Google Apps. We ought to be able to bridge our identities from one place to another, instead of having to choose just one. Why shouldn’t our Google Docs be permanently accessible through Office Live and vice versa, and on to some upstart site that no one’s heard of? Market forces may naturally take care of this—but they are not magic, and a little bit of well-crafted regulation (or the threat of it) can help maintain a competitive marketplace.
Freedom for you is one half of the puzzle. The other half is freedom for those who write software. Even in a world mostly of Windows, there are thousands of different pieces of software that can be found, and Bill Gates has had nothing to say about whether they would be allowed to run on his platform. We ought to preserve similar freedoms in a new world where Web platforms can and do shut down outside software all the time, whether on the Facebook platform or Google Apps. This might come about through software authors uniting to temper some of the practices that give Web-platform makers much more control over outside software than Microsoft ever had for its desktops, or again, through narrow regulation to ensure nondiscriminatory accessibility to these platforms—especially if one platform outgrows the rest.
Long-term relationships can be extremely valuable and healthy; it makes sense to get new and promising ones off on the right foot.


July 10th, 2009 at 5:05 pm (#)
While it’s natural to worry more about data portability in the “Google Era” than in the “Microsoft Era,” I think it’s worth noting that Google has so far been vastly more open with data than Microsoft is.
It’s very easy to move data out of Gmail (via IMAP), Google Docs (six export formats including Open Office) and Google Spreadsheets (five export formats including .ods).
Last time I checked Microsoft’s equivalent products (Hotmail, Word, Excel) didn’t offer comparable data portability.
I suspect you’ll find it much more difficult to access Office Live documents via Google Apps than vice versa.
Also, for what it’s worth, what strikes me most about the Chrome OS is its lack of generativity.
A PC that can only run a browser (even a fancy one tricked out with Gears and Native Client) is a PC that can’t generate anything interesting.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:02 pm (#)
Of course, I agree with you that data should be owned by the user and it must be portable. But maybe, Google isn’t the best example here because they do have APIs for almost everything. “Why shouldn’t our Google Docs be permanently accessible through Office Live and vice versa, and on to some upstart site that no one’s heard of?” It is!
Facebook might have been a better example as it provides no way (well, at least, no straightforward way) for developers to extract data out of Facebook.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:18 pm (#)
Well, yes, I agree, so far as it goes …
But this is the n’th coming of The Thin Client, which has never yet lived up to the hype. OK, maybe, This Time It’s Different, from all the other times people have had their head in the clouds. Could be. Still, this sort of product has flopped many, many times before.
I think this was a pretty interesting take on it:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/07/08/google_microsoft_phony_chrome_war/
“No one will be happier than Microsoft about Google’s vanity venture to market computers with a Google-brand OS. It gives us the illusion of competition without seriously troubling either business, although both will obligingly huff and puff about how serious they are about this new, phoney OS war. Since both of these giants are permanently in trouble with antitrust regulators – they’re at different stages of IBM-style thirty years legal epics – that’s just the ticket for them both.”
July 10th, 2009 at 9:32 pm (#)
Um, about my previous comment, I did *not* see the first comment when I wrote it (which was probably in moderation). We make the same point and M. C. Y is more detailed about the APIs. :)
In a more general sense, I do agree that some kind of regulation or other non-binding standard to force web application makers to allow data portability would be good here, too. Google might one day just say “screw it” and decide to take down all their APIs. Then, we’d have no way to make them change their decision.
July 11th, 2009 at 6:59 am (#)
Google is now seriously confusing most young people across the globe. They are creating of lot of good things and lot of bad reputation.
Google still makes major Revenues more then 90% from advertising and very lil from ‘licensing and other revenues’
This clearly proves that Google has not yet done anything as powerful or dynamic yet as developing the best search engine i.e. there first mega product.
For Example Google Click Fraud is still out of control, isn’t the focus and attention should be completely on making that obsolete ?!
Google Mobile Ads are way down there when you compare them with simple and great start us like Admob and many others.
Google might unveil a great OS but I am not sure if they can make people believe to the core that we respect your Internet freedom, privacy and so on.
Sometimes I am sure many of us feel is Google doing what firms like Microsoft did? At the same time is Google losing focus with regards to battling with Microsoft instead of focusing on there innovation / improvement?
July 13th, 2009 at 6:11 pm (#)
I’m a little bemused at this notion of reaching for the “regulation” lever at the first sign of a disruptive technology.
Perhaps my memory is failing me, but I cannot think of a single instance of regulation providing a positive force for shaping the development of the internet and all that surrounds it.
As a technologist, I’m very happy to see many flowers bloom: and perhaps unlike the one who coined that phrase, happy to see the best ones thrive. People will code around the road-bumps, and make shims and connections and mash-ups to deliver the desired utility. In that sense, code is law, and we need no other.
[I don't disagree with JZ's assertion that market forces are not magic, I simply suggest that we are nowhere near a failure of the market in this case.]
July 27th, 2009 at 5:19 pm (#)
Techniceptually, I think we’re just going full-circle. After all, in the 80s we spent all our time on dumb terminals accessing applications and data on distant servers. It’s the sheer numbers of participants and interactivity that has changed. But you’re absolutely correct to promote awareness of the rules of the game(s).